D-day, Obama hasn’t won yet !
04 November 2008 à 13h53
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Obama mania must not blind his supporters. The senator for Illinois hasn’t reached the White House yet. Some doubts can still change the results.
Reuters / Brian Snyder
According to the latest Reuters/Zogby poll, published on Monday, Barack Obama still has a wide advantage over John McCain, with 51% of vote intentions against 44% for the Republican candidate. Moreover, polls give Obama the winner in three swing states, the key states in the final run, - Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
But the Democrats and Obama’s fans must take care not to count their chickens before they're hatched. In The Phoenix, a newspaper in Boston, Steven Stark goes further : and if McCain beats Obama, it will be a Long national nightmare. In his article, he imagines waking up on November 5 in the morning with McCain president and sharing a nationwide hangover.
So what can make Obama fail in the final run ?
First, the popular vote is not a guarantee to win the election. The candidat needs to have 270 voices from the electoral college. In the American electoral process, based on an indirect vote, popular participation and Electors’ votes may not correspond. That’s why in 2000, Al Gore lost the election to George W.Bush, even if he had more popular votes than his Republican opponent. And if Barack Obama seems to have won over the international public opinion with the Obamania phenomenon, he is not sure he will bring in all the votes, especially in the swing states.
Then polls can lie, above all when for the last few weeks they have indicated a wide margin in favor of Obama. It can have a boomerang effect, overconfidence threatens Democratic electors. Some of them may think the election is done before the vote is over. It may have frightening repercussions on Democrat participation, even more when Obama’s side is expecting young voters to turn out.
In 2004, John Kerry was a poll leader and he lost. Before him, there were Hughes in 1916 and Dewey in 1948.
Finally, Obama can be a victim of the « Bradley effect ». It refers to Tom Bradley’s experience. This black man was a candidate to be governor of California in 1982. First in the polls, he was last after the vote. Electors didn’t vote for a black man. 26 years after, can the racial issue have a similar effect on the results ?
But Obama’s luck is being aware of the problem. He has asked his supporters to not slacken their efforts. Until the end, Barack Obama is on the road, like his Republican opponent, because both know that the last days are as important as the beginning of the race, 18 months ago.
Reuters / Brian Snyder
But the Democrats and Obama’s fans must take care not to count their chickens before they're hatched. In The Phoenix, a newspaper in Boston, Steven Stark goes further : and if McCain beats Obama, it will be a Long national nightmare. In his article, he imagines waking up on November 5 in the morning with McCain president and sharing a nationwide hangover.
So what can make Obama fail in the final run ?
First, the popular vote is not a guarantee to win the election. The candidat needs to have 270 voices from the electoral college. In the American electoral process, based on an indirect vote, popular participation and Electors’ votes may not correspond. That’s why in 2000, Al Gore lost the election to George W.Bush, even if he had more popular votes than his Republican opponent. And if Barack Obama seems to have won over the international public opinion with the Obamania phenomenon, he is not sure he will bring in all the votes, especially in the swing states.
Then polls can lie, above all when for the last few weeks they have indicated a wide margin in favor of Obama. It can have a boomerang effect, overconfidence threatens Democratic electors. Some of them may think the election is done before the vote is over. It may have frightening repercussions on Democrat participation, even more when Obama’s side is expecting young voters to turn out.
In 2004, John Kerry was a poll leader and he lost. Before him, there were Hughes in 1916 and Dewey in 1948.
Finally, Obama can be a victim of the « Bradley effect ». It refers to Tom Bradley’s experience. This black man was a candidate to be governor of California in 1982. First in the polls, he was last after the vote. Electors didn’t vote for a black man. 26 years after, can the racial issue have a similar effect on the results ?
But Obama’s luck is being aware of the problem. He has asked his supporters to not slacken their efforts. Until the end, Barack Obama is on the road, like his Republican opponent, because both know that the last days are as important as the beginning of the race, 18 months ago.
