Swing states, key states
03 November 2008 à 14h19
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Not all state results will be waited for in the same way on November 4. That is because some states can have a decisive effect on the final score.
Everybody remembers the often quoted names of Ohio or Florida in the last presidential election. With Pennsylvania they belong to the « Big Three » of what are called the « Swing states ». Why the « Big Three » ? Because they choose almost 70 Electors, that is more than a quarter of the necessary majority. « Swing states » means we never know in advance to which candidate they will give their votes. In 2000, Florida made the suspense last until making the election definitely swing to George W.Bush, but by a margin of only 537 votes. Ohio played the same role four years later, finally giving 20 Electors to the Republican candidate.
This year, Pennsylvania seems likely to vote for Barack Obama, with a thirteen point lead in the recent polls. But Florida and Ohio are still hesitating.
Some smaller states will be decisive, like Missouri or North Carolina. Especially the first, as a « bellwether state » : during the last 26 elections, this state has always voted for the winner except for once (in 1956). So that it is often said if you want to know who will be the next president, just look at Missouri. It’s useless for the moment, the polls give the two candidates really neck and neck in this state. Of course the two candidates are well aware of this : their teams elaborate statistics which are used to concentrate the required efforts.
Around 20 states are the real scene of the campaign. 2004 was a peak of this strategy : Bush and Kerry went to Cleveland (Ohio) so often that the Democrat said one day : « I will make my mail follow me here ». The same candidate is reputed to have spent 50 million dollars on ads and TV spots in the state… he finally lost.
This struggle for undecided voters in swing states naturally becomes fiercer in the last weeks before the election, the two candidates trying to bring in the electors one by one. That is why the swing states are also called the «battleground states».
Everybody remembers the often quoted names of Ohio or Florida in the last presidential election. With Pennsylvania they belong to the « Big Three » of what are called the « Swing states ». Why the « Big Three » ? Because they choose almost 70 Electors, that is more than a quarter of the necessary majority. « Swing states » means we never know in advance to which candidate they will give their votes. In 2000, Florida made the suspense last until making the election definitely swing to George W.Bush, but by a margin of only 537 votes. Ohio played the same role four years later, finally giving 20 Electors to the Republican candidate.
This year, Pennsylvania seems likely to vote for Barack Obama, with a thirteen point lead in the recent polls. But Florida and Ohio are still hesitating.
Some smaller states will be decisive, like Missouri or North Carolina. Especially the first, as a « bellwether state » : during the last 26 elections, this state has always voted for the winner except for once (in 1956). So that it is often said if you want to know who will be the next president, just look at Missouri. It’s useless for the moment, the polls give the two candidates really neck and neck in this state. Of course the two candidates are well aware of this : their teams elaborate statistics which are used to concentrate the required efforts.
Around 20 states are the real scene of the campaign. 2004 was a peak of this strategy : Bush and Kerry went to Cleveland (Ohio) so often that the Democrat said one day : « I will make my mail follow me here ». The same candidate is reputed to have spent 50 million dollars on ads and TV spots in the state… he finally lost.
This struggle for undecided voters in swing states naturally becomes fiercer in the last weeks before the election, the two candidates trying to bring in the electors one by one. That is why the swing states are also called the «battleground states».
