The "endgame" in Iraq
03 November 2008 à 11h09
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The spiral of violence has been reversed in Iraq and the country has made some progress toward political stability. However the situation remains fragile. The next US president will have to manage this war.
The US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama met Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in Baghdad July 21, 2008 - Reuters/ Ho New
There will be no victory in Iraq before the presidential election of November the 4th, even though the intensity of the war has decreased. General David L. Petraeus, commander-in-chief in Iraq until September the 16th, didn’t want to pronounce the key word. He even said several times: “I don’t know if we could ever talk about a victory in Iraq”.
Therefore, the United States Defense secretary Robert Gates said the war in Iraq had entered its “endgame” and urged the next U.S president to continue a cautious approach to troop cuts.
True, everybody feels progress in Iraq. Between the middle of 2005 and early 2007, almost 3,000 Iraqi civilians were killed each month. This year, there are fewer than 500 victims a month. In addition, the first war, that is to say the revolt of the Sunni Muslim minority (20 % of the population), has almost ended. Less than 400 attacks each week target the American troops and their Iraqi allies this year, instead of 800 during the autumn of 2007 and 3,000 in 2005-2006.
Several causes explain this trend. Firstly, General Petraeus’s plan has forced the soldiers to live among the Iraqis in the troubled areas all day and all night. The soldiers don’t return to their bases any more. So the 30,000 soldiers sent to reinforce the U.S troops have played a positive role in the war. Moreover, the surprising ceasefire called by the most powerful shia militia in Iraq, the Madhi Army, has helped soldiers to improve the situation.
Thus, the war in Iraq is at a turning point. George W. Bush, the US president, decided to bring only 8,000 troops home from Iraq by February 2009 because violence there has dropped substantially. 146,000 U.S. troops will remain there. In the minds of Robert Gates, this decision represented “not only the right direction but the right course of action”.
However Robert Gates said that Iraqi security was still fragile and warned that the situation could deteriorate unless there is continued diligence on the security front. He explained that “the planned US troop reductions are an acceptable risk today that also provide for unforeseen circumstances in the future”. Above all, the reductions preserve a broad range of options for the next commander-in-chief who will make his own assessment after taking office in January.
Indeed, as George W. Bush leaves office in January, any decision on major withdrawals from Iraq will rest with his successor, Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama. McCain backs Bush’s view that Iraq has priority and troops should pull out only when commanders say it is safe to do so. On the contrary, Obama wants to pull U.S combat units out of Iraq within 16 months and to urgently deploy more forces in Afghanistan, where the United States has some 33,000 troops.
These differences apart, Democrats and Republicans are united on one point. One man in fact: Robert Gates. Democrats really think highly of this Republican. A rumour even says that he could keep his job even if Barack Obama won.
The US Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama met Iraq's Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki in Baghdad July 21, 2008 - Reuters/ Ho New
There will be no victory in Iraq before the presidential election of November the 4th, even though the intensity of the war has decreased. General David L. Petraeus, commander-in-chief in Iraq until September the 16th, didn’t want to pronounce the key word. He even said several times: “I don’t know if we could ever talk about a victory in Iraq”.
Therefore, the United States Defense secretary Robert Gates said the war in Iraq had entered its “endgame” and urged the next U.S president to continue a cautious approach to troop cuts.
True, everybody feels progress in Iraq. Between the middle of 2005 and early 2007, almost 3,000 Iraqi civilians were killed each month. This year, there are fewer than 500 victims a month. In addition, the first war, that is to say the revolt of the Sunni Muslim minority (20 % of the population), has almost ended. Less than 400 attacks each week target the American troops and their Iraqi allies this year, instead of 800 during the autumn of 2007 and 3,000 in 2005-2006.
Several causes explain this trend. Firstly, General Petraeus’s plan has forced the soldiers to live among the Iraqis in the troubled areas all day and all night. The soldiers don’t return to their bases any more. So the 30,000 soldiers sent to reinforce the U.S troops have played a positive role in the war. Moreover, the surprising ceasefire called by the most powerful shia militia in Iraq, the Madhi Army, has helped soldiers to improve the situation.
Thus, the war in Iraq is at a turning point. George W. Bush, the US president, decided to bring only 8,000 troops home from Iraq by February 2009 because violence there has dropped substantially. 146,000 U.S. troops will remain there. In the minds of Robert Gates, this decision represented “not only the right direction but the right course of action”.
However Robert Gates said that Iraqi security was still fragile and warned that the situation could deteriorate unless there is continued diligence on the security front. He explained that “the planned US troop reductions are an acceptable risk today that also provide for unforeseen circumstances in the future”. Above all, the reductions preserve a broad range of options for the next commander-in-chief who will make his own assessment after taking office in January.
Indeed, as George W. Bush leaves office in January, any decision on major withdrawals from Iraq will rest with his successor, Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama. McCain backs Bush’s view that Iraq has priority and troops should pull out only when commanders say it is safe to do so. On the contrary, Obama wants to pull U.S combat units out of Iraq within 16 months and to urgently deploy more forces in Afghanistan, where the United States has some 33,000 troops.
These differences apart, Democrats and Republicans are united on one point. One man in fact: Robert Gates. Democrats really think highly of this Republican. A rumour even says that he could keep his job even if Barack Obama won.
