The new voters: the key of the presidential election?
03 November 2008 à 23h57
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Young Americans represent 44 million potential voters, that is to say one fifth of the population. Their support is vital to the two candidates, the Democrat Barack Obama and the Republican John McCain. Until now, Obama is their favorite.
For the third time since 1972, the voting rate of young Americans could overtake 50 % for the presidential election of November the fourth. 22 million of them registered on the voting lists for this election.
Thus, they could have a real impact on the results of the poll. Indeed, according to an Associated Press–Yahoo Actualités poll, published in October, 60 % of those who are between 18 and 29 years old back Barack Obama, against 30 % for John McCain. If the majority of them went to the polls, they could guarantee Obama the White House. If fewer new voters actually turned out on the day, McCain might do better than predicted.
This situation concerns some key-states like Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as they could swing the poll. For instance, in North Carolina, there are 579,858 new voters on the polling lists. A lot of them are around twenty. They represent 9 % of the state’s voters and they could make the difference on polling day.
This trend is obviously national. The voting rate of young Americans has constantly increased since 2000 because of several campaigns to encourage them to vote. The organization "Rock the Vote", which works on the political involvement of young people, counted more than 2.3 million voters this year against 1.4 million in 2004. According to the Census Desk’s official statistics, 47 % of 18-24 year-olds voted in 2004, whereas they had been only 36 % in 2000. Moreover, some experts in political science think those rates will be reached this year.
Barack Obama has understood what is at stake in this election. He has decided to motivate young Americans by talking about important issues for them: health care, university access, environment, employment, immigration and so on. He also uses new technologies like Facebook, MySpace, YouTube or BlackPlanet to get closer to them.
Democrats even call on all young Americans who are already members of the party. Each weekend, they come from New York, Boston, even from California sometimes, to drive the new registered voters to the polling stations. The results of the poll will tell us if the Democrat's strategy was the right one.
For the third time since 1972, the voting rate of young Americans could overtake 50 % for the presidential election of November the fourth. 22 million of them registered on the voting lists for this election.
Thus, they could have a real impact on the results of the poll. Indeed, according to an Associated Press–Yahoo Actualités poll, published in October, 60 % of those who are between 18 and 29 years old back Barack Obama, against 30 % for John McCain. If the majority of them went to the polls, they could guarantee Obama the White House. If fewer new voters actually turned out on the day, McCain might do better than predicted.
This situation concerns some key-states like Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as they could swing the poll. For instance, in North Carolina, there are 579,858 new voters on the polling lists. A lot of them are around twenty. They represent 9 % of the state’s voters and they could make the difference on polling day.
This trend is obviously national. The voting rate of young Americans has constantly increased since 2000 because of several campaigns to encourage them to vote. The organization "Rock the Vote", which works on the political involvement of young people, counted more than 2.3 million voters this year against 1.4 million in 2004. According to the Census Desk’s official statistics, 47 % of 18-24 year-olds voted in 2004, whereas they had been only 36 % in 2000. Moreover, some experts in political science think those rates will be reached this year.
Barack Obama has understood what is at stake in this election. He has decided to motivate young Americans by talking about important issues for them: health care, university access, environment, employment, immigration and so on. He also uses new technologies like Facebook, MySpace, YouTube or BlackPlanet to get closer to them.
Democrats even call on all young Americans who are already members of the party. Each weekend, they come from New York, Boston, even from California sometimes, to drive the new registered voters to the polling stations. The results of the poll will tell us if the Democrat's strategy was the right one.
